SSU Forum “A nuclear North Korea: where do we go from here?”

On January 24, the Securities Studies Unit of the University of Tokyo’s Institute for Future Initiatives (IFI) invited Dr. Edward Howell (University of Oxford) and former British Ambassador to DPRK, Alastair Morgan to deliver keynote speeches on US, UK and other allies’ responses to a nuclear North Korea and assess related policies. Professor Yee Kuang Heng (University of Tokyo) served as the moderator of the forum and Professor Keisuke Iida (University of Tokyo) gave the opening remarks.

Keynote Speeches

Dr. Edward Howell began his speech by discussing the diplomatic relations and perspectives of the DPRK authorities, their strategy as seen from analysis of their past behavior, and the future of North Korea. After outlining the nuclear missile capability the country has today, he pointed to how the DPRK and Russia are moving to strengthen bilateral ties. He then explained how DPRK views the U.S., South Korea, and Japan based on analysis of their messages towards foreign audiences. Dr. Howell shared his views on the strategies that DPRK has taken since the Korean War to manage relationships with its “enemies” such as the U.S. and South Korea. He discussed the situations in the Korean Peninsula, touching on the domestic politics of South Korea. As for the future, with DPRK increasing its nuclear capabilities and U.S.-DPRK and North-South Korea relations both chilling (which means diminishing prospects of the unification of the Korean Peninsula), the future does not look very bright. Regarding the possibility of a future war, he just pointed out that the Kim Jong Un regime does not want their country to be destroyed and therefore wants to avoid a full-fledged war, but will likely continue to engage in provocation and grow increasingly aggressive. It was stressed that likeminded countries including the U.S., Korea, and Japan need to strengthen cooperation in responding to such hostility.

In the beginning of his speech, former British Ambassador to DPRK, Alastair Morgan stated that although a nuclear North Korea is an unavoidable reality for the meantime, UK and the international community should not give up on denuclearization of DPRK, and shared his hopes and prospects for future UK-DPRK relations. While admitting it was clear that DPRK is trying to acquire nuclear capability for the purpose of waging war, he also drew attention to other signs by sharing his analysis of their messages to the international community (the significance of the message that it will not launch a pre-emptive attack), its attitude toward South Korea, that DPRK is using nuclear missile development as a means of deterrence and coercion against the U.S. and South Korea, and the shifts in the power balance between relevant ministries and agencies within the DPRK. Regarding their foreign policies, Mr. Morgan noted that DPRK’s support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has a strategic significance and that their arms trade is benefiting both countries to a certain extent. While China is taking a more prudent stance with DPRK, there have been diplomatic gestures aimed at creating a friendly mood. Regarding US-DPRK relations, he commented that there is little hope for the U.S. to achieve its goals through negotiations under the Biden administration, so the U.S. needs to continue with intelligence collection and joint exercises to maintain effective deterrence, while offering a certain level of security for the DPRK (which means not to take hostile or aggressive policy) and preparing for a crisis at the same time. He touched on the possibility that if a Trump administration comes in, the DPRK might attempt to communicate with the U.S., albeit it may not give up nuclear development.

Q&A

Subsequently, the floor was open for questions from the audience and active discussion took place.

The first question was about the possibility of a war on the Korean Peninsula, in particular, how Kim Jong Un’s recent words and actions should be analyzed. While reminding in advance that what they can say about the future is nothing more than speculation, the two speakers assured that Kim Jong Un also understands the risks of a full-scale war, but stressed the need to stay alert because DPRK will likely step up its provocative actions for an array of reasons: deterrence against other nations, raising the stakes for negotiation in anticipation of a potential new U.S. regime (e.g., to ultimately demand the withdrawal of the U.S. military from the Korean Peninsula); recent decline of U.S. deterrence power, and exposure of South Korea’s vulnerability, and so forth.

Some questions focused on the roles of Russia and China: for example, what DPRK is getting in return for its support to Russia; whether the relationship between China and DPRK will become stronger going forward; and whether China will be able to control a potential war by DPRK. In response to these questions, the two speakers answered as follows: Although they don’t know specifically what the DPRK is getting from Russia, not only the tactical benefits but the larger benefits of strategic significance are also important; China is showing a more prudent stance than Russia in its relation to DPRK; DPRK is gaining nuclear development capabilities but still needs to obtain technical support from external sources; The relation between DPRK and Russia remains a trade partnership at this point, suggesting that support is provided in exchange of monetary and technical compensation, and that their cooperation is based on a shared anti-U.S. stance and not much more. Finally, there was a question regarding the role of the United Nations in dealing with DPRK, to which Dr. Howell answered that the UN is having certain effects including the imposition of sanctions, etc. but also has challenges of its own such as the dysfunction of the Security Council.