SSU Forum/GraSPP Research Seminar “The Production of Deterrence in the PLA Rocket Force: Nuclear Rituals, Control and Sacrifice”

  • Date：
    Tue, Dec 03, 2024
  • Time：
    10:30-12:00 (JST)
  • Location：
    (In-person only): Lecture Hall B (4th Floor), International Academic Research Bldg. Hongo campus, UTokyo
    MAP
  • Host：

    Security Studies Unit (SSU), Institute for Future Initiatives (IFI), the University of Tokyo

  • Co-host：

    Graduate School of Public Policy (GraSPP), the University of Tokyo

  • Language：

    English (Japanese simultaneous translation not available)

  • Registration：

    Please be sure to sign up from registration form below.

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Abstract

How does China’s People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) ensure the proper function of deterrence? Classical deterrence theory, as well as Chinese military writings, emphasise the need for the target of deterrence to see, hear, and feel the authenticity of the deterring threat. That is, the capability to do harm (weapon systems) must be accompanied with credibility. Yet as Maria Mälksoo has argued, credibility remains a “magic” ingredient in nuclear deterrence theory: essential to include yet almost impossible to precisely define. Mälksoo’s response is to adopt methodologies from the sociology of rituals, both religious and mundane, to understand deterrence. This ritual lens of analysis is helpful for understanding nuclear politics in China. For the PLARF, the need to prove credibility has never been more important. Corruption scandals have shaken the Force at a time when the Party leadership demands more nuclear potency in a time of heightened strategic uncertainty – and a tangible sense that war is possible in the near future. By using ritual-like practices, the PLARF has attempted to repair the damage of the past few years while convincing its masters in Beijing, as well as its enemies in the US, that Chinese nuclear deterrence is indeed “credible”. In practice, this has involved parades and exercises – but also songs, dances and poems. Analysing these activities is essential for understanding the full extent of how the PLARF produces deterrence.

Panelists

Opening remarks IIDA Keisuke
Professor, Graduate Schools for Law and Politics / Graduate School of Public Policy (GraSPP)
Director of SSU Unit, Institute for Future Initiatives, the University of Tokyo

Speaker: Cameron Hunter
Postdoctoral Researcher, University of Copenhagen, Denmark

Commentator: Nakatani Hiroshi
Major, the Air Staff College of the Japan Air Self-Defense Force

Moderator Yee Kuang Heng
Professor, Graduate School of Public Policy (GraSPP), the University of Tokyo