Online seminar: Qualitative Foresight to Navigate Multilevel Climate Policy Futures

What effects would it have on German, EU and international climate policy if Trump leaves the Paris Agreement? If the US/China tensions escalate? Or if the European Green Deal were not continued? Climate policy is a multifaceted field characterized by the intricate interplay between domestic, regional, supranational, and international dynamics. Thinking through the plausible future complexities of climate policy requires a comprehensive approach that considers the interconnections and synergies across these different levels. In order to enable such future thinking, two foresight workshops were carried out as part of an internal process within the SWP’s Research Cluster on Climate Policy and Politics. This presentation details how the foresight process enabled structured thinking about complex plausible (rather than probable or desirable) futures, and provides a framework for a discussion of climate policy recommendations that may be robust in the face of a range of such plausible futures.

[About Dr. Miranda Boettcher]
Dr. Miranda Boettcher is a Research Associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin, and an Adjunct Assistant Professor at the Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University in the Netherlands. She combines her expertise in Global Environmental Politics, the Sociology of Knowledge, and Foresight to analyze the emergence and legitimization of future climate policy options. She is currently a Project Leader on the German-government (BMBF)-funded project ASMASYS-II-C, assessing the potential of marine carbon removal, with a focus on future policy and governance pathways. Additionally, Miranda is a member of the United Nations Joint Group of Experts on the Scientific Aspects of Marine Environmental Protection (GESAMP) Working Group 41: Ocean Interventions for Climate Mitigation and a Review Editor for the UNEP GEO-7 report. She is currently an Earth System Governance Research Fellow. She was an Oxford Martin Visiting Fellow at the University of Oxford’s Institute for Science, Innovation and Society in 2018, and a Visiting Researcher at the Australian-German Climate and Energy College at the University of Melbourne in 2019. She has previously worked as a Research Associate at the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies in Potsdam, Germany, Research Analyst for Foresight Intelligence in Berlin, Germany, an Investigator at the Mintz Group in San Francisco, USA, and a Graduate Researcher at the University of Heidelberg’s Department of International Relations in Heidelberg, Germany.

[About the Project and the Seminar Series]
The JST Social Scenario Research Project aims to contribute to the realization of a carbon-neutral society in Japan, emphasizing sustainable development through science and technology. This initiative envisions a desirable future society and explores the pathways, options, and strategies to achieve it. Since April 2023, the project has expanded to integrate knowledge from a broad range of researchers, including those from the humanities and social sciences, fostering further development and societal contribution. A key aspect of the project is the “Social Scenario for Accelerating Carbon Neutral Transition,” focusing on both quantitative and qualitative analyses of carbon-neutral technologies, and developing strategies for societal implementation and system design. The seminar series with scenario experts is part of this effort, facilitating the exchange of knowledge and strategies to accelerate the transition to a carbon-neutral society.

Email: cn-scenario-group★g.ecc.u-tokyo.ac.jp (★→@)

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