Book Launch Event: SSU Forum/GraSPP Research Seminar “Global Maritime Military Strategy”

On May 22, 2025, the Security Studies Unit (SSU) at the Institute for Future Initiatives, in collaboration with the Graduate School of Public Policy (GraSPP), hosted a book launch event featuring Dr. Keitaro Ushirogata, Captain at the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Command and Staff College. Dr. Ushirogata presented his latest book on global maritime military strategy. The event included a discussion panel comprising Dr. Keizo Kitagawa, retired Captain of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force and faculty member at Keio University, and Dr. Yee Kuang Heng, Director of the SSU and GraSPP faculty member, who served as moderator. The session concluded with an engaging audience discussion.

Keynote speech
In his keynote speech, Dr. Ushirogata presented a novel analytical framework that challenges traditional maritime strategic models. Moving beyond the classical Mahan-Corbett dualism and outdated dichotomies between land and sea power, he proposed a tripartite model encompassing area denial, sea control, and power projection. His research examined the maritime strategies of six major powers— the United States, United Kingdom, Japan, Russia, China, and India—over the period 1980 to 2023, analyzeing how these strategies have evolved in response to changing security environments and the persistent dominance of U.S. naval power.
Dr. Ushirogata highlighted several major strategic shifts: China’s evolution from asymmetric Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2AD) tactics to the development of a symmetrical blue-water navy including aircraft carriers; Japan’s transition from a purely defensive posture to incorporating counter-strike capabilities; and India’s movement from a land-focused defense orientation to a more assertive regional maritime presence. Meanwhile, Russia continues to adhere to a consistent area denial strategy, representing the sole example of a “pure land power,” while the UK is attempting to restore its maritime capabilities after a period of retrenchment.
He concluded the presentation by indicating that contemporary maritime strategies are increasingly hybridized, shaped by each nation’s specific security context and their relationship to U.S. maritime supremacy. He also noted emerging challenges posed by advanced military technologies and the shifting dynamics of nuclear deterrence.
Discussion
Following the keynote, Dr. Kitagawa commended the book as a significant contribution to maritime strategic theory. He praised its comparative and methodologically disciplined approach and highlighted three key innovations: 1) the application of causal inference models rooted in social science methodology; 2) the construction of nine analytical case studies by dividing each country’s strategy into pre- and post-inflection phases, and 3) a structured, evidence-based assessment framework that transforms the book into a valuable strategic tool for analysts and scholars. Dr. Kitagawa also offered constructive feedback, suggesting deeper examination of gray zone operations and cyber-maritime integration. He questioned the assumption of rational actors in the face of recent escalatory trends and recommended further analysis on the influence of force structure on strategic outcomes. Finally, Dr. Kitagawa characterized the book as offering a structural lens for anticipating future challenges and posing valuable strategic questions for policymakers, military professionals, and academics alike.
Dr. Heng contributed to the dialogue by exploring the relationship between strategic ends and means, referencing the concept of the “Lippmann Gap”—the mismatch between a nation’s commitments and its available power—which featured prominently in the development of the 2025 U.S. National Defense Strategy warning of the risks of strategic overstretch. Dr. Heng also drew historical parallels between current U.S. naval concerns and the British Royal Navy’s trajectory from the two-power standard of 1889 to its east-of-Suez withdrawal in 1968. He concluded by asking Dr. Ushirogata whether the Lippmann Gap poses greater risks to sea powers than land powers, particularly in cases such as China’s shift from a land-oriented to a maritime-focused strategy.

Q&A session
The event concluded with an interactive Q&A session. Dr. Ushirogata responded to a variety of questions, addressing topics such as the impact of international maritime law on naval resource allocation and perceptions of naval power in peacetime, especially from a UK policy standpoint. He also spoke on the strategic role of China’s Coast Guard and maritime militia in sea control operations and their relevance in scenarios such as a potential Taiwan blockade. One participant raised the possibility of employing non-strategic nuclear weapons for sea-based area denial missions, in contrast to traditional deterrent roles. Another question explored the historical evolution and strategic alignment of U.S.-Japan maritime cooperation before, during, and after the Cold War, particularly in light of recent U.S. policy shifts.