Online seminar: Carbon Neutrality: Social Scenarios Towards a Bright and Prosperous Future Society

We present the methodology and main findings of the interim report published by the project in March 2025, and consider the future vision of a carbon-neutral (CN) society in 2050 from various perspectives.
The project members will provide detailed explanations of three entirely different scenarios: the “bright and prosperous international cooperation-based” CN society, the “bright and prosperous self-sufficient” CN society rooted in local communities, and the “dark and impoverished society” resulting from policy failures. By examining desirable and undesirable scenarios, we will discuss how the success or failure of GX (Green Transformation) policies will impact our society and lives, as well as the concrete path toward a sustainable and prosperous future.

[About Prof. Masahiro Sugiyama]
Masahiro (Masa) Sugiyama is a Professor at the Institute for Future Initiatives(IFI), the University of Tokyo(UTokyo). He is an expert on long-term climate policy. His recent research projects include scenario analysis of climate and energy policy and governance of climate engineering from the public engagement perspective. He joined UTokyo in April, 2014. He was a lead author of the Working Group III’s contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC). He was a member of Harvard SCoPEx (Stratospheric Controlled Perturbation Experiment) Advisory Committee, and is also a member of the Joint Group of Experts on the Scientific Aspects of Marine Environmental Protection (GESAMP) Working Group 41 Ocean Interventions for Climate Change Mitigation. He holds a Ph.D. in climate science and a master’s degree in technology and policy, both from MIT. Prior to joining UTokyo, he was a researcher at the Socio-Economic Research Center, the Central Research Institute of the Electric Power Industry.

[About Dr. Hiroto Shiraki]
Associate Professor, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University.Specializes in energy systems and environmental systems. Earned a PhD in environmental studies from the University of Tokyo. Served as a research associate at the National Institute for Environmental Studies and as an assistant professor at The University of Shiga prefecture Faculty of Environmental Science before assuming his current position in April 2023. Engaged in scenario analysis of climate change mitigation technologies and analysis of the effectiveness of energy conservation measures. He comprehensively evaluates the potential of energy policies and technology introduction for achieving a carbon-neutral society by using mathematical models and data analysis.

[About Dr. Manuela HARTWIG]
Manuela Hartwig is a Project Researcher at the University of Tokyo’s Institute for Future Initiatives. Her expertise lies in energy justice and research into Japan’s energy policy and social scenarios, including their social and ethical implications. After graduating from Freie Universität Berlin, she studied environmental energy policy at the University of Tsukuba. She then worked at the National Institute for Environmental Studies before assuming her current position. She focuses on building future visions using narratives and supporting policy decision-making by considering cognitive biases. She explores a sustainable future from the multifaceted perspectives of society, technology, and ethics.

[About the Project and the Seminar Series]
The JST Social Scenario Research Project aims to contribute to the realization of a carbon-neutral society in Japan, emphasizing sustainable development through science and technology. This initiative envisions a desirable future society and explores the pathways, options, and strategies to achieve it. Since April 2023, the project has expanded to integrate knowledge from a broad range of researchers, including those from the humanities and social sciences, fostering further development and societal contribution. A key aspect of the project is the “Social Scenario for Accelerating Carbon Neutral Transition,” focusing on both quantitative and qualitative analyses of carbon-neutral technologies, and developing strategies for societal implementation and system design.

The seminar series with scenario experts is part of this effort, facilitating the exchange of knowledge and strategies to accelerate the transition to a carbon-neutral society.

Email: cn-scenario-group★g.ecc.u-tokyo.ac.jp (★→@)

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