SSU Forum/Tobunken Seminar “Beyond Hedging? Southeast Asian Responses to Indo-Pacific Realignments under Trump 2.0”

Since the advent of Trump 2.0, the dual structural drivers of growing U.S. unpredictability and growing Chinese influence have led to multiple clusters of realignments across the Indo-Pacific. The ongoing realignments entail: (a) growing uncertainties surrounding U.S.-centric alliances and minilateral alignments (Quad and AUKUS); (b) growing momentum for other minilateral and multilateral groupings on both sides of the geopolitical spectrum (e.g., the NATO-linked Indo-Pacific Four [IP4] on one hand, as well as the China-, Russia-backed institutions like SCO and BRICS+ on the other); and (c) gathering impulses for multi-directional, multi-layered partnerships within and beyond circles of “likeminded” nations.

The multi-directional partnerships include the networks of bilateral and trilateral alignments among U.S. allies in Asia and beyond; multiple sets of enhanced bilateral partnerships (some involve a 2+2 mechanism) between an Indo-Pacific power and a Southeast Asian state (e.g., Japan’s OSAs with several Southeast Asian states); multiple sets of bilateral or minilateral mechanisms between a Southeast Asian state(s) and a partnering country (either democratic or not-so-democratic), as well as cooperative mechanisms involving ASEAN and its expanding circles of partners.

This talk offers a Southeast Asian perspective on the emerging trends. It first analyzes the logic and limits of each cluster of the realignments. It then argues that non-big powers across the region are likely to persist in hedging for as long as possible, even and especially at a time of shrinking space and increasing uncertainties. The talk advocates a pragmatic “likeminded-plus” approach for the IP4 powers and ASEAN states to forge stronger and closer networked alignments, without necessarily targeting any power, to mitigate the risks of external entrapment and internal resentment, while still maximizing mutually beneficial collaboration on a convergent, complementary and catalytic basis.

Speaker: Cheng-Chwee Kuik, Professor, Institute of Malaysia and International Studies (IKMAS), National University of Malaysia/ Japan Foundation JFSEAP Visiting Fellow, Kyoto University
Discussant 1: Tomohiko Satake, Associate Professor, School of International Politics, Economics and Communication (SIPEC), Aoyama Gakuin University
Discussant 2: Antoine Roth, Research Fellow, Graduate School of Law, Tohoku University
Moderator: Ryo Sahashi, Professor, Institute for Advanced Studies on Asia, the University of Tokyo