Online seminar: “What is a Scenario?”

This seminar is organized on the occasion of the publication of the report “What is a Scenario?” (April 2025), with the aim of clarifying the fundamental meaning and role of “scenarios” widely used in climate change, energy, and green transformation (GX) discourses, while sharing case studies and methodological perspectives.

In today’s VUCA era (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity), scenarios have become indispensable tools for envisioning futures and supporting decision-making. At the same time, their meaning and use are often misunderstood or conflated with related concepts such as visions and plans. This seminar will revisit the conceptual foundations of scenarios and discuss their practical applications, drawing upon both theoretical insights and applied case studies.

The seminar will feature three distinguished speakers: Professor Masahiro Sugiyama (climate change and energy policy), Associate Professor Yusuke Kishita (scenario design), and Associate Professor Hiroto Shiraki (energy system analysis). Together, they will present and discuss from multiple perspectives, bridging research and practice. The seminar aims to provide participants with a deeper understanding of scenario thinking and to offer insights valuable for both future research and practical implementation.

[About Dr. Masahiro Sugiyama]
Masahiro (Masa) Sugiyama is a Professor at the Institute for Future Initiatives(IFI), the University of Tokyo (UTokyo). He is an expert on long-term climate policy. His recent research projects include scenario analysis of climate and energy policy and governance of climate engineering from the public engagement perspective. He joined UTokyo in April, 2014. He is a coordinating lead author of the Working Group III’s contribution to the Seventh Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). He was a member of Harvard SCoPEx (Stratospheric Controlled Perturbation Experiment) Advisory Committee, and is also a member of the Joint Group of Experts on the Scientific Aspects of Marine Environmental Protection (GESAMP) Working Group 41 Ocean Interventions for Climate Change Mitigation. He holds a Ph.D. in climate science and a master’s degree in technology and policy, both from MIT. Prior to joining UTokyo, he was a researcher at the Socio-Economic Research Center, the Central Research Institute of the Electric Power Industry.

[About Dr. Yusuke Kishita]
Yusuke Kishita is Associate Professor at the Department of Precision Engineering, School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo. His expertise includes scenario design, life cycle engineering, sustainability science, Eco-Design, and backcasting. He received his Ph.D. in Engineering from Osaka University and subsequently worked as a researcher at the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) before joining The University of Tokyo in 2016. He has served in his current position since 2021.
He has international research experience at Technische Universität Braunschweig (Germany) and the University of Cambridge (UK), and has also contributed as a scenario design expert for the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC). His current work focuses on international research on circular economy and scenario design.

[About Dr.Hiroto Shiraki]
Shiraki is Associate Professor at theGraduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University. He specializes in energy and environmental systems. He earned a PhD in environmental studies from the University of Tokyo, worked as a research associate at the National Institute for Environmental Studies and as an assistant professor at the University of Shiga Prefecture, before joining his current position in April 2023. He is engaged in scenario analysis of climate change mitigation technologies and analysis of the effectiveness of energy conservation measures. He comprehensively evaluates the role of energy policies and technology introduction for achieving a carbon-neutral society by using mathematical models and data analysis.

[About the Project and the Seminar Series]
The JST Social Scenario Research Project aims to contribute to the realization of a carbon-neutral society in Japan, emphasizing sustainable development through science and technology. This initiative envisions a desirable future society and explores the pathways, options, and strategies to achieve it. Since April 2023, the project has expanded to integrate knowledge from a broad range of researchers, including those from the humanities and social sciences, fostering further development and societal contribution. A key aspect of the project is the “Social Scenario for Accelerating Carbon Neutral Transition,” focusing on both quantitative and qualitative analyses of carbon-neutral technologies, and developing strategies for societal implementation and system design.

The seminar series with scenario experts is part of this effort, facilitating the exchange of knowledge and strategies to accelerate the transition to a carbon-neutral society.

Email: cn-scenario-group★g.ecc.u-tokyo.ac.jp (★→@)

**For inquiries about this event, please do not reply to this email. Instead, send your questions to the address provided above.