UTokyo-Cambridge Voices: East Asia at Risk: Regional Insecurity and the Future of Alliances

As a part of the strategic partnership between the University of Tokyo and the University of Cambridge, the Security Studies Unit (SSU), in collaboration with the Graduate School of Public Policy, was delighted to host a discussion on the topic of “East Asia at Risk: Regional Insecurity and the Future of Alliances.” Two speakers included Dr. John NILSSON-WRIGHT, senior university lecturer at Cambridge University, and Prof. Kiichi FUJIWARA, professor of international politics at the Graduate School of Law and Politics, University of Tokyo. The session was chaired by Prof. Yee-Kuang HENG, professor of international politics at GraSPP.

Dr. Nilsson-Wright first shared his views about East Asian diplomatic policy after Biden won the US presidential election. In brief, he felt the Japanese government should be relieved after the conversation between Prime Minister Suga and President-elect Biden after the election. He described the diplomacy in the Trump administration as rather destructive, in which many political decisions were made without consulting international allies, for example, his meeting with Kim Jong-un. Regarding Japanese foreign policy, he thought the Suga administration has tried to push back against the idea that the new PM is incapable of dealing with foreign affairs, for instance by signing the defense agreement with Australia and visits to Southeast Asia suggest that economic cooperation would be crucial for Japan.

Another major issue would be the stability of North Korea. Dr. Nilsson-Wright highlighted the increasing autonomous attempts by South Korea that could be a new emerging factor for regional stability, including President Moon Jae-in’s southern policy, South Korea’s active participation in the OECD—all of which show South Korea’s active role. Yet, the key factor for stability remained the relationship between Washington and Beijing.

Prof. Fujiwara was not sure whether the new president is really a cause for relaxation for Japan. Although Trump, through his aggressive approach and unexpected policy decisions, had challenged China’s agenda which had become increasingly assertive, he has thus far been unsuccessful in changing Chinese behavior in the geopolitical terrain. Prof. Fujiwara also highlighted a belief that Japan works better with Republican administrations rather than Democratic ones. In response to Dr. Nilsson-Wright’s optimistic view that foresaw better cooperation in East Asia, even though other problems like the South China Sea and Indo-Pacific issue have yet to be settled, Prof. Fujiwara had reservations based on his view of China.

Dr. Nilsson-Wright appreciated Prof. Fujiwara’s comments and said he may be too optimistic. He added that a key issue is how much the US could actually deliver in the region. Prof. Fujiwara emphasized that as China is much tougher than it was 4 years ago, this should also be taken into consideration He agreed with Dr. Nilsson-Wright that North Korea has acted with a sense of independence—as their meeting with Trump in 2018 implies North Korea may do something beyond what China wants them to do.

In discussing Europe’s role and hardening threat perceptions of China, an issue raised by Prof. Heng, Dr. Nilsson-Wright thought European presence remained limited in the sense that they have yet to develop a strategic culture of how they might deploy their military forces in Asia. While they still have a major role to play in international relations, Europe appears less of a concern for East Asia. However, Prof. Fujiwara noted that the role of NATO might matter, as many NATO members are also within the EU.

※This meeting was organized by subsidies from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.