SSU Forum“ Technology and Security: Japan’s Policy Agenda in the age of US-China Rivalry for Critical and Emerging Technologies”

On the afternoon of July 9, 2020, the Security Studies Unit (SSU) of the Institute for Future Initiatives (IFI) at the University of Tokyo (UTokyo) held an online seminar titled “Technology and Security: Japan’s Policy Agenda in the Age of US-China Rivalry for Critical and Emerging Technologies” with approximately 150 participants. The keynote speech was given by Nobukatsu Kanehara, Professor of Doshisha University, former Assistant Chief Cabinet Secretary (Deputy Secretary-General of the National Security Secretariat) under the title, “Japan’s Policy Agenda in the Age of US-China Rivalry for Critical and Emerging Technologies,” followed by a discussion on the speech with Ryo Sahashi, Associate Professor at UTokyo’s Institute for Advanced Studies on Asia and Shingo Ito, Senior Economist at the Institute for International Economic Studies, as the discussants. A Q&A session was held after that, which led to active discussions arising from questions raised by 10 participants. Kiichi Fujiwara, Director of the Institute for Future Initiatives (Professor of International Politics, Faculty of Law, UTokyo) served as the moderator of the seminar.

The science and technology war between US and China has been growing ever more intensive in recent years. How are we to perceive this situation? How will US-China relations develop from here? And how should Japan respond? In the seminar held to consider these questions, Prof. Kanehara pointed out that, in order to understand why the US and China are competing so intensely over emerging technologies, we first need to understand the nature of contemporary war which involves battles in outer space and cyberspace. With the deepening of the global market economy in recent years, technology investment by private entities, as represented by GAFA, is growing rapidly to approach the scale of government investment. On the other hand, China is rapidly expanding its power while promoting economic growth through military-civil fusion, raising serious concerns from neighboring nations. Amid this situation, the US government has recognized the need to prevent the outflow of technologies that are sensitive in terms of national security, in part to maintain its military advantage. Prof. Kanehara explained that the US is going through trial and error to collaborate with Japan and the EU in imposing export controls and investment regulations against China. Although it may seem at present that the US is unilaterally asking for cooperation, the US government will work to build a certain consensus through consultation among the free world countries. Prof. Kanehara concluded that Japan faces the challenge of materializing specific policies to better understand, protect, grow, and utilize technology from the perspective of public interest and through the coordinated efforts of government and industry.

In light of the above arguments made by Prof. Kanehara, Associate Prof. Sahashi and Mr. Ito raised some key issues. Associate Prof. Sahashi, as an expert in US-China relations, made the following several points. Amidst the recent intensification of US-China rivalry in which technology and security are inseparably linked, it is true that Japan too needs to protect its sensitive technologies. On the other hand, it was the US and other developed counties that helped develop China’s science and technologies in the first place, by making huge investments and accepting numerous international students from China. How far can the US government and private sector tighten control of their relations with China, despite significant inconsistencies in US government policies toward China? Moreover, can the government sufficiently compensate businesses as well as universities and other research institutions for the commercial or scientific opportunities lost because of tightened controls on trade and exchange with China? What is an appropriate level of control? Isn’t it possible for the US to utilize existing frameworks for international cooperation in addition to introducing its own control measures? It is not advisable for Japan to ultimately give up managing its relations with China. Then, how should Japan maintain its relations with China while preparing for worse scenarios? Mr. Ito, who is an expert on the Chinese economy, pointed to the following issues. While international support is also important, it is imperative to secure domestic support to make Japan’s economic security measures work more effectively. To this end, how should we shape democratic governance? Domestic industry is expected to generate new innovations to create new assets for national security. This leads to another question because extensive control to protect domestic technology would also limit the profitability of businesses: How is the Japanese government going to ensure enough profit for businesses to generate new innovations?

In addition to these points raised by the discussants, general participants contributed various questions and issues from a wide range of perspectives, which led to interesting and timely discussions among Prof. Kanehara, the discussants, and other participants. A video of the seminar is available on UTokyo TV (in Japanese).