SSU Forum “Ukrainian Reconstruction: Ways and Mechanisms”
- Date:Mon, May 22, 2023
- Time:16:30-18:00
- Location:Online Seminar (Zoom Webinar)
The Zoom Webinar URL will be delivered by email on the day before this event. - Language:
English
(No simultaneous translation) - Host:
Security Studies Unit (SSU), Institute for Future Initiatives
- Registration:
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In the year 2022 that Russia started its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the latter’s GDP fell by nearly 30%, with a wide number of areas devastated by the war, more than 8 million refugees and nearly 5 million internally displaced persons amounting to nearly a third of Ukraine’s prewar population, and the national infrastructure dramatically weakened. Risks and uncertainties thus remain critically high.
A year after Russia’s full-scale invasion, since February 24, 2023, the Government of Ukraine, the World Bank, the EU, and the UN jointly estimate that the cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine is US $411 billion (at minimum) expected to stretch over 10 years, needed both for public and private funds.
At present, primarily by its leading democracies and multilateral institutions, the efforts of the world community aim at large-scale financial and technical assistance to Ukraine in rebuilding, above all, critical infrastructure and preventing humanitarian catastrophe among the civilian population. This direction provides renewal of opportunities for exporting Ukrainian products that suffered during the war.
However, turning Ukraine into a sustainable market economy, an effective state, and a thriving democracy will be a challenge and an uphill battle. In this regard, a comprehensive program for the use of foreign aid, coordination of ways and directions of reconstruction, prevention of corruption components in the reconstruction process are among the highest priority tasks for the moment. What lessons can we learn from past experiences of others? What insights could be gleaned from experiences in the Japanese context? What may be the path forward in the case of Ukraine?
In the context of the G7 May 2023 Summit in Hiroshima, this meeting brings together a set of Japanese and Ukrainian experts to define the problem, outline the cornerstones of an effective framework, and lay the foundations for future action. Organizers believe that the conversations initiated by the University of Tokyo IFI will serve as a springboard for productive collaborations in the months and years ahead.
Opening Remarks: Kensuke Fukushi
Professor and Director, Institute for Future Initiatives, the University of Tokyo
Welcome note: Kaori Hayashi
Executive Vice President and Professor, the University of Tokyo
Keynote Speaker: Sergiy Korsunsky
Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of UKRAINE to JAPAN
Discussant: Akio Takahara
Professor, Graduate Schools for Law and Politics, Director of Security Sector Unit, Institute for Future Initiatives, the University of Tokyo
Discussant: Hideki Matsunaga
Director General, Middle East and Europe Dept, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)
Moderator: Nazia Hussain
Assistant Professor, Institute for Future Initiatives, the University of Tokyo
On May 22, 2023, the Security Studies Unit (SSU) of the University of Tokyo Institute for Future Initiatives (IFI), hosted an event titled, “Ukrainian Reconstruction: Ways and Mechanisms”. The event was an effort to seek insights from the Japanese experiences of reconstruction over the years. These lessons could prove helpful in efforts to rebuild the economy and society in Ukraine.
Opening Remarks
Prof. Kensuke Fukushi, Director of the University of Tokyo Institute for Future Initiatives (IFI), and Prof. Kaori Hayashi, Executive Vice President of the University of Tokyo gave opening remarks.
Prof. Fukushi extended a warm welcome to the esteemed guests. He highlighted the role of IFI to serve as a platform of collaboration for scholars and policymakers to address challenges of a rapidly changing world. Academic knowledge and innovative ways of thinking could contribute to policies and initiatives of lasting value.
Prof. Hayashi noted the pivotal role played by education in shaping the future through empowering citizens, fostering innovation, and building resilient societies. The University of Tokyo established an emergency relief program for scholars and students at risk following the invasion of Ukraine. As a result, Ukrainian students and researchers are currently pursuing diverse areas of research and contributing meaningfully to the academic community.
Keynote speech
The opening comments were followed by the keynote speech delivered by Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine, Sergei Korsunsky.
He noted the importance of the meetings at G7 between the Ukrainian side led by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Prime Minister Kishida and other leaders. These conversations were fruitful in mobilizing the international community to help Ukraine in her efforts towards reconstruction.
The Ambassador also shared about his upcoming book on comparative analysis of reconstruction experiences of Japan, Korea, Vietnam, and China over the years. Immense intellectual effort went into rebuilding cities and infrastructure after World War II and massive earthquakes over the years. Japanese experiences have been replicated in other countries, benefitting people beyond Japan’s borders.
The question of reconstruction is complicated, but lessons from history tell us that there are clear conclusions about the nature and pace of policy interventions. As of now, small and big cities, around 2000 in number, have suffered heavy losses in Ukraine. How can we build something new, or recreate what once was through cost-effective sustainable ways?
To that end, Ukraine could gain from advice and help to construct highways, energy infrastructure, bridges, develop Shinkansen (bullet-trains), and manage urban planning. Building world-class level of infrastructure could prove fruitful in many ways, including in Ukrainian efforts to integrate with Europe. Japanese enterprises have long worked with the European Union (EU) and familiar with the EU standards for infrastructure and transport systems among other things. Ukraine is also ready to accept assistance from the larger international community including countries in Asia like Singapore, and in the Global South.
History suggests that it takes a long time to rebuild countries. Ukraine does not have the luxury of time. A generation is already lost—those who could have pursued academic goals have had to pick up weapons in defense of their country. The effect of COVID-19 was also debilitating, taking away two years in addition to the years of war.
The ambassador expressed his hope that Ukrainians who have been forced to leave their country will be able to come back and rebuild their homeland. They could serve as bridges between Ukraine and the rest of the world.
Discussion
Prof. Akio Takahara, head of the SSU, and Mr. Hideki Matsunaga, Director General, Middle East and Europe Department, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) served as panelists.
Prof. Takahara noted that the experience of World War II had a huge impact on society. It shaped the way the Japanese people think about the tragedies of war. Hiroshima was the appropriate venue for hosting the G7 meetings. World War II was a war of aggression by Japan. The nation learnt that any country cannot change the status quo by use of force.
The principle of non-aggression was easily breached by one of the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, shocking the world and the people of Japan. It was good, thus, that President Zelenskyy could consolidate international solidarity at the G7 meetings.
While it is important to talk about reconstruction, the war needs to end first. After the war, willpower will be needed to reconstruct with external help. In addition to external assistance, the determination of each Ukrainian national will be instrumental.
In ending the war, it is important not only to involve the G7 but also the so-called Global South. Countries like India and Brazil could help in garnering support in other countries. The role of China is also important in persuading the Russian government to work towards peace. Lastly, the United Nations, which was established after WWII, has failed to deliver its promise. While many may agree that reform is needed, how may it go about? There are no easy answers.
Mr. Matsunaga followed the thoughtful intervention by Prof. Takahara.
He noted that President Zelenskyy’s presence made G7 meetings more meaningful. He shared that JICA has been supporting Ukraine, such as providing budget support to Ukraine with the World Bank on supporting Ukraine since the beginning of the conflict in February 2022. JICA support is shaped by three pillars: supporting continuance of government functions; assisting neighboring host countries and Ukrainians displaced by invasion; and conducting recovery and reconstruction support.
Japan has committed 7.6 billion USD to Ukraine for humanitarian, recovery, and reconstruction assistance. The majority of JICA’s operations in Ukraine include budget support through ODA loans, ODA grants, and technical assistance. These operations will be informed by reconstruction experience in Japan and other countries and tailored to the ground realities of Ukraine.
JICA’s ongoing response includes disbursing 600 million USD as co-financing with World Bank, and increasing resilience of neighboring Poland and Moldova, which have accepted Ukrainian nationals through delivering medical equipment (up to JPY 1 billion to Moldova), and joint demining training and IT sector technical cooperation (Poland). It also includes supporting displaced Ukrainians in Japan by JICA domestic offices in cooperation with local governments. Other steps include conducting preparatory damage and needs assessment using satellite imagery and data collection survey, delivering generators to government institutions in Ukraine, technical cooperation for humanitarian demining through providing machinery and conducting practical training on use of mine detectors, sharing knowledge and experience with post-disaster waste management, and supporting recovery of agriculture through provision of seeds with smallholder farmers in Kharkiv.
Mr. Matsunaga ended his presentation on the note of human resilience in the face of immense suffering. Drawing on the parallels of destroyed Ukrainian infrastructure, he shared the image of children attending a class without school supplies in the rubble of the building of an elementary school in Hiroshima. The children were being taught by a young woman who had lost her hair due to the nuclear attack. The example illustrated the value of human capital that is more valuable than infrastructure. He expressed the hope that the remarkable people of Ukraine would be successful in rebuilding their country soon.
Q&A
The discussion was followed by questions from in-person and online participants. The conversation was moderated by Assistant Prof. Nazia Hussain (IFI). Questions focused on prospects of cooperation among JICA, multilateral banks and Ukraine towards reconstruction, the importance of governance reforms, managing the reconstruction process effectively, the urgency of time in managing these efforts, and ensuring that the devastation experienced in different parts of the country was highlighted to the international community. Responses acknowledged the importance of these concerns and focused on how Ukrainian officials were doing their best, and how JICA has been supporting Ukraine consistently since the outbreak of the war.
Related article: IFI Director Kensuke Fukushi met H.E. Dr. Sergiy Korsunsky, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to Japan.